A brand new rumor has surfaced relating to the way forward for Star Wars at Hasbro. I considered whether or not or to not even discuss it, because the supply is the standard YouTube rumor mill within the form of “the long run ruler of earth” aka “Overlord DVD”. And earlier than you groan or shake your head… I feel this rumor, even when unfaithful, no less than warrants a dialogue. Additionally, that is imagined to be enjoyable, as in “let’s simply speculate”. As a result of even when unfaithful, there are some issues we all know for certain that make it no less than believable.
So what’s the rumor? Allegedly Hasbro is so fed up with Star Wars that they need out of their contract and promote the license off, which, based on the report, continues to be good for an additional 5 years. However gross sales have declined a lot that it’s not value it for Hasbro.
Click through to read my thoughts on this.
Apply the standard truckloads of salt, you understand the drill
So the fundamental query is: would Hasbro ever take into account abandoning Star Wars?
Nicely, in my view if one thing stops promoting then sure. Hasbro wouldn’t cling to Star Wars if it not makes them any cash and if no enchancment is on the horizon.
These are the issues we all know:
- accomplice model gross sales have declined for a number of quarters in a row now, to all time file lows
- based on analysts in This autumn/2023 each the Marvel and Star Wars toylines had been “drained”, as in, gross sales are declining (and this was for the crucial vacation season)
- the TVC HasLab crawled throughout the end line this yr, not even unlocking the ultimate tier, GI Joe crushed it, hovering to 28k offered gadgets and all tiers unlocked after all
And I need to add an remark: all of the latest toy reveals are fan channel / Amazon / Pulse releases. What they’re NOT are Walmart or Goal releases. Briefly: each retailers gained’t carry the toys. In any respect.
In actual fact, when was the final time Hasbro revealed a slew of latest figures… and none of them had been Walmart or Goal exclusives? There are nonetheless some, a number of, however the variety of exclusives has tremendously declined. And when you might at first suppose “nice” that is dangerous information for Hasbro. As a result of if a retailer believes in a model they’ll ask for exclusives. In the event that they not need exclusives that is dangerous information. It means they’re shedding religion in it, whilst a loss chief.
Now based on the rumor not even “classic toys” are promoting, the report means that these are Luke, Vader, Leia and many others… however I’m not so certain, it’s not fully clear if as a substitute “The Classic Assortment” is referenced right here as a substitute.
Both manner… I had at all times assumed Hasbro would no less than hold the license all the best way till 2027, to allow them to exploit the fiftieth anniversary of Star Wars.
However once you take a look at the roadmap and potential gross sales Hasbro can anticipate I’ve to say… even when the rumor could also be unfaithful, I feel it’s believable that Hasbro is contemplating all choices right here. As a result of once you take a look at the Star Wars roadmap there’s actually nothing Hasbro may generate profits with. They should be livid with Lucasfilm due to their inaptitude to launch content material the mainstream can take pleasure in (let’s additionally not neglect that the Indiana Jones toys flopped).
- 2024: The Acolyte and Skeleton Crew – The Acolyte is an unmitigated catastrophe and it’s secure to imagine the few Acolyte toys we’ll get won’t promote – in any respect. Skeleton Crew with a bunch of youngsters, Jude Regulation and leftover villains from The Mandalorian will virtually actually not transfer many toys both, if Hasbro would even contact the child characters within the first place
- 2025: Andor – that’s the one factor occurring in 2025 so far as we all know, and whereas I personally love Andor it’s additionally not a present that can ever promote many toys
- 2026: The Mandalorian & Grogu – now this film could also be successful, however Hasbro will nonetheless have an issue right here. Until Lucasfilm radically redesigns every part everybody and their aunt and uncle have already got all of the Mando and Grogu merchandise anybody may ever want. Will Hasbro make their tenth Mando determine with minute variations or one new accent? So I can’t see how Hasbro can transfer quite a lot of toys for one thing individuals already purchased the merchandise for when it was a profitable present on Disney+
After which there’s the potential Rey film (though different rumors right here say the film might by no means occur now and that Kennedy will get no funding for her film, additionally the script author now has different plans too, he needs to create a brand new film studio in Hollywood which can hold him busy and away from engaged on the script) later in 2026. Let’s simply say the possibilities that this shall be a “The Marvels” second for Lucasfilm are a lot higher than this being successful (my cash is on “it would by no means be launched”). And if Hasbro had been contractually obligated to help this film with merchandise they could find yourself with containers filled with stuff nobody needs, clogging their warehouses. And if the Rey film doesn’t occur, it nonetheless means there’s nothing that would enhance gross sales
Perhaps Ahsoka season 2 may launch in 2026 as nicely… however this has the identical situation because the Mandalorian film… until they redesign all of the characters (a chance) individuals have already got all of the important Acolyte toys. What number of extra Ahsokas does anybody want? Or Sabines?
Briefly: in case you take a look at what’s upcoming for Star Wars there may be actually nothing that would enhance gross sales and even create demand for years to come back.
Nice, chances are you’ll say, so Hasbro can focus fully on the Lucas period. However the situation is, the OT/PT solely of us usually are not sufficient to help this model anymore. Hasbro, Star Wars, Lucasfilm, wants new content material that retains the curiosity up. You may promote toys based mostly on almost 50 yr previous films solely a lot. The Mandalorian hype and growth from 2020/2021 proves this. It was The Mandalorian alone that breathed new life into Star Wars toy gross sales. It might not be value it for Hasbro if they will solely promote toys to a dwindling variety of diehard Lucas period followers.
And with Star Wars now tremendously lowering the output and with the upcoming exhibits or films being nothing that can in all probability revitalize gross sales… the query is… is it nonetheless value it for Hasbro? Given how they’ve a lot overhead and want to maneuver quite a lot of toys. One of many designers (Chris) famously mentioned in a YouTube fan Q&A that model new figures (all new tooling) not essentially amortize their tooling prices with their preliminary manufacturing run. Few individuals appeared to have picked up on that however that assertion is revelatory.
Let that sink in. Manufacturing runs should be so low by now {that a} model new determine doesn’t break even (this was for the TVC Boba Fett determine). And Hasbro is in it for the cash, not nostalgia.
So with all that I feel the rumor is no less than believable. Do I consider it? Not essentially. Perhaps Hasbro hopes issues will get higher. Perhaps they hope the Mando film will by some means make individuals purchase their tenth Mando and Grogu figures or plushies, possibly they hope the fiftieth anniversary shall be a mega occasion.
However IF Hasbro give up the Star Wars license or licensed out sure elements of the model to smaller corporations it might not shock me in any respect.
Simply take a look at the earnings report, take a look at the numbers, they’re dismal. The rumor claims gross sales throughout the board for each Marvel and Star Wars are down 68%. Marvel, like Star Wars, has additionally been struck onerous by huge failures… and Agatha All Alongside will definitely not make issues proper, however for Marvel there may be no less than a glimmer of hope within the type of the Avengers film with Robert Downey Jr. Star Wars doesn’t even have that. Kennedy critically needs to convey again Rey as a substitute. And as I mentioned… even an excellent profitable Mandalorian film wouldn’t essentially end in excessive toy gross sales, since I feel the marketplace for Mando toys is fairly saturated. Din will nonetheless have his Beskar armor, Grogu will nonetheless be a toddler carrying his bizarre coat, the Razor Crest might return, however we already had a HasLab for that.
So probably Hasbro has nothing to look ahead to in relation to Star Wars for years to come back, and in contrast to within the interval between the prequels and the sequels there merely aren’t sufficient collectors left to maintain the model afloat with out new content material that creates hype and curiosity. Additionally, this was the time of The Clone Wars which had a reasonably excessive viewership when it aired, which saved curiosity up. And the query is that if Hasbro could be prepared to take a seat all of it out and to hope issues will flip round once more with the fiftieth anniversary. Perhaps they’re already aware of what Lucasfilm is planning, Hasbro would want to organize for that starting in 2025 or so. So Lucasfilm must coordinate with their main accomplice right here.
However what do you suppose? Do you suppose it’s no less than within the realm of chance that Hasbro might need to give up Star Wars? Or do you suppose it’s all the standard hogwash and utter nonsense? As I mentioned, I do probably not consider any of it… however I feel it’s no less than one thing value fascinated with. When WOULD Hasbro give up the license? At what level? What number of extra instances can Lucasfilm fail earlier than Hasbro says… “sorry, that’s it!”?
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